Wednesday, October 12, 2011
Future Plans and Prognostications
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is out with predictions for the future of the U. S. economy as it applies to the housing market. Among their forecasts:
--Fixed mortgage rates are expected to remain low by historical standards, finishing 2011 at around a 4.5% average for the year, falling slightly to 4.4% for 2012 and climbing back up to 4.9 by 2013.
--Total existing home sales will stay around the 4.9 million
unit pace for 2011 and 2012, before increasing slightly to 5.2
million units in 2013 as the broader economy recovers. The
recovery in the new home sales will have a comparably slow start,
and may well be slow for most of 2012, but will show some
meaningful increases in 2013.
--Home price measures that exclude distressed transactions have
stabilized, and certain markets are showing year-over-year
--The unemployment rate will increase slowly until the second
quarter of 2012, hitting 9.3%, from the current level of 9.1%. It
is expected to be around 9.1% for 2011, 9.3% for 2012, and 9.1%
for 2013. Even though both economic and job growth are in
positive territory, they are still insufficient to lower the
unemployment rate in the near term.
And then there are the solar storm warnings